Rates are rising. Volumes aren't. Here's why that matters.

Week of May 25–May 29, 2026

The Supreme Court's unanimous ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II just changed the legal foundation of freight brokerage permanently. Brokers are now liable under state law for the carriers they put on loads, and the market is already responding — spot rates are moving up as compliant capacity tightens and every serious broker in the country starts making harder decisions about who they'll book. If your carrier vetting process has any gaps in it right now, those gaps are now legal exposure.

01SCOTUS Ruling Makes Carrier Vetting a Legal Document

The Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II that the FAAAA does not preempt state-law negligent hiring claims against brokers, meaning every carrier you book is now a potential courtroom exhibit. The legitimate carrier pool is shrinking as brokers get selective, which is already tightening capacity and pushing spot rates up even in a soft-volume environment. A Texas carrier simultaneously got hit with a nearly fifty-million-dollar nuclear verdict, and plaintiff attorneys are increasingly following the chain of commercial relationships straight to the broker.

02South Texas Reefer Whipsawed Forty Percent Both Directions

South Texas reefer rates spiked forty percent in one week and then crashed forty percent the following week — a volatility pattern driven by crop timing mismatches, early harvest surges, and carriers over-positioning into a lane that dried up just as fast as it ignited. The seasonal handoff is also pulling reefer rate support toward California and the Pacific Northwest as strawberry and cherry volumes build, while Florida outbound is already down twenty-four percent from its Mother's Day peak. Brokers holding commitments through the South Texas spike felt it on the back end, and the same sequence can repeat before summer fully arrives.

03Permian Basin Rig Counts Are Pulling Flatbed Demand Up

DAT's flatbed reports confirmed rising Permian Basin rig activity this week, with flatbed demand and spot rates moving in direct response — and the national flatbed benchmark is already sitting at two-eighty-seven a mile. Energy-driven flatbed demand concentrates fast in specific corridors: Midland, Odessa, Lubbock, and feeder lanes coming in from Oklahoma and Kansas, and carriers with step decks and lowboys in that geography are going to have options before the load boards fully reflect the tightness. Brokers who let their West Texas flatbed carrier relationships go cold during the quiet stretch are about to feel that.

This week's cold email line

With dry van rates climbing even as the Cass shipment index stays soft, the floor may already be in — and I want to make sure you're not getting quoted against a market that shifted while everyone was watching the volume numbers.

Source: DAT / EIA  ·  Week of May 26, 2026