Rates fell four cents. Trucks fell more.

Week of August 24–August 29, 2026

The four-year freight recession ended this week, and not one shipper on your list caused it. Trucks left. DAT put dry van linehaul at $2.21 and called out capacity exits by name, CVSA enforcement data showed exactly which small carriers are getting pulled off the road, and diesel at $5.65 is quietly finishing off the rest. If you go into fall bids pricing off spring softness, you will spend Q4 covering loads you already sold too cheap.

01Capacity Exits Ended The Freight Recession

Dry van spot linehaul came in at $2.21 this week, down four cents, but the softness is noise sitting on top of a shrinking truck count. DAT flagged capacity exits outright, TD Cowen's Jason Seidl said freight was never terrible and there was just too much truck, and CVSA's 2026 Roadcheck data backed it up with medical card violations topping the driver out-of-service list and English language proficiency violations cracking the leading violations for the first time. That attrition lands hardest in small-fleet dry van country: Laredo, El Paso, Southern California.

Say this

Call your dry van shippers and open with this. "The rate you're seeing on the report went down four cents, but the truck count went down more, and those two things don't mean the same thing." Then explain the difference: demand-driven softness reverses, capacity-driven tightening does not, because a carrier who parked his truck in July is not coming back in October because you offered him a dime. Tell them the carriers coming out of service right now are getting pulled for medical cards and English proficiency, not for freight demand, which means the exit is permanent and it is concentrated on the exact lanes they buy cheapest. Ask for a committed volume conversation on their top five lanes before bid season, and frame it as them locking a floor while they still can rather than you asking for a rate increase.

02Diesel At $5.65 Is A Refining Problem

Diesel held at $5.65 all week with Brent only at $88.68, which tells you this is crack spreads, refinery outages, and thin distillate inventories, not a crude spike. Crude spikes correct in a quarter and refining shortages do not, and heating oil season is about to compete for the same barrel. Every week the pump stays here, more thin-cash small carriers go away, which feeds directly back into story one.

03Parcel Surcharges Push Freight Onto Your Trucks

USPS announced a six percent peak surcharge on Ground Advantage and Priority starting October 4th, and UPS holiday surcharges begin as early as September 27th with U.S. volume expected to jump twenty-four percent from Q3 to Q4. Every parcel channel a retail or e-commerce shipper touches got more expensive this fall at once. That is what pushes heavy, dense freight off parcel and onto LTL, pool distribution, and full truckloads into regional DCs.

This week's numbers

Dry Van$2.63/mi

Reefer$2.63/mi

Flatbed$2.63/mi

Diesel$5.65/gal

Source: DAT and EIA · Week of August 25, 2026

This week's cold email line

Dry van linehaul dropped four cents last week and the truck count dropped more, which means the number on your rate report is about to stop being the number you actually pay.

Aim this at mid-size dry van shippers running Laredo, El Paso, or Southern California lanes, where small-fleet attrition and enforcement out-of-service rates are hitting hardest. It lands now because their internal reporting is showing softening rates while their cover times are already creeping, and nobody has explained the gap to them.

Outbound · Done-for-you prospecting

The market gives you the angle.
Outbound puts it in the inbox.

Every angle above only earns money when it lands in front of a shipper. Outbound is the done-for-you version: I research your target shippers, write the sequences in your voice, and keep the follow-ups going while you cover freight.

This week's sources

From doorstep to supply depot, this EV truck maker aims to tackle both · FreightWaves
The future of freight audit isn't finding more errors, it's preventing them · Supply Chain Dive
Solving organized retail theft starts with better supply chain data integrity · Supply Chain Dive
The Keys to a Successful Auction: Why Taylor & Martin Rises Above the Competition · Transport Topics
American Trucking Associations Looks for a New Leader · Trucking Info
CBP finds $9.5M in meth hidden inside detergent shipment at Texas border · FreightWaves
Borderlands Mexico: Criminal groups keep pressure on Mexican freight networks · FreightWaves
Trump's 50% tariff on many Canada imports in effect as talks stall · Supply Chain Dive
Mobility Global trims 2026, 2027 Class 8 forecasts · Transport Topics
Descartes buys Tai for $100 million in third deal of 2026 · Transport Topics
U.S. consumer confidence falls, with gas stuck above $4 · Transport Topics
Crowley launches Central America-Port Houston ocean service · Supply Chain Dive

That is the read for this week.

Andrew
The Load Letter

01Capacity Exits Ended The Freight Recession

02Diesel At $5.65 Is A Refining Problem

03Parcel Surcharges Push Freight Onto Your Trucks

The market gives you the angle.Outbound puts it in the inbox.

Read it before your shippers do.

The market gives you the angle.
Outbound puts it in the inbox.